Let the race begin

Myanmar will go to the polls on Nov 8 in what is expected to be the freest and fairest election in the country in more than 60 years. While the political parties have more than four months to prepare, campaigning will only be allowed for 60 days before the actual vote.

It is still not clear whether President Thein Sein will be seeking a second term. His office said last week that he would not, then backtracked and said the 70-year-old leader had not ruled out further political involvement.
Thein Sein could still be president if the elected MPs decide to re-nominate him as a vice-president, when parliament convenes after the polls in November. Then the upper and lower houses in a joint sitting could vote him in as president. In any case, he will remain in charge until parliament meets to elect the next president.
Nor will any of the current ministers have to stand down from office even if they are seeking re-election, as was expected. Under the constitution, members of the executive — president and cabinet — cannot engage in political party activities. But several other clauses in the constitution seemed to contradict this. So Union Election Commission (UEC) chairman Tin Aye sought legal advice from the constitutional tribunal.
Its decision: in the matter of electoral law, the UEC is supreme. But the tribunal added that it would hear objections and complaints if they were submitted, and would hold hearings and an adjudication process if necessary — to the dismay of the UEC chief.
So ministers can compete in elections, campaign and remain in office, said Tin Aye. But it has to be a level playing field, he insisted. "During the election campaign, ministers will be barred from using government property — like cars and helicopters — cannot use government officials or staff in any way, or take advantage of their position," he told Asia Focus in an interview. And all complaints would be rigorously investigated, he promised.
The parties now have until Aug 8 to submit their lists of candidates. The two main parties — the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the National League for Democracy (NLD) — are well advanced in their pre-selection process. Party manifestoes and policy papers will follow after candidates are finalised in late July, said spokesmen.
Tin Aye said he was certain his commission would be ready, although there was still a lot of preparation to be done. Most notably, officials have to address widespread complaints about the accuracy of voters' lists.
The NLD insists that more than 50% of the lists contain serious errors. Many civil society representatives believe that in rural areas there is not enough time for lists to be properly corrected. "The rural and remote areas are a real problem," said Dr Kya Thu Paung Ku. "There the local UEC offices are understaffed and ill-informed; and inevitably the voter lists are going to be seriously flawed."
There are 86 political parties now registered to contest the elections, according to Tin Aye. Of these, 52 are defined as ethnic parties. Some of the latter will not run at the national level. Most electors will in fact be voting for three parallel parliaments — the upper and lower houses at the national level, and regional parliaments in the states and regions.
Ninety-three parties contested the 1990 elections, in which the NLD won convincingly but was never allowed to take power. In the 2010 election — which the international community called a sham — only 40 parties registered: the NLD and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy boycotted in protest against the "undemocratic" constitution. Both are contesting the November polls.
Constituency boundaries this year will remain the same as in 2010 with a total of 1,142 MPs to be elected: 330 constituencies for the lower house, 168 for the upper house, and 644 for regional parliaments. A further 29 regional seats will be apportioned to "national race" representatives, while in accordance with the constitution 25% of the seats in all assemblies will be allocated to the army, with those MPs selected by the army commander-in-chief.
Earlier attempts to introduce proportional representation failed and all MPs will be elected by the first-past-the-post system. This obviously favours the bigger parties, especially the NLD and USDP, although in the ethnic areas — particularly Rakhine and Shan State — local parties will have an enormous advantage. In an unpublished national opinion survey, in Rakhine more than 75% of those interviewed said they would vote for the Arakan nationalist parties. The NLD received just 3.9% and the USDP 5.9%.
Much of the country seems likely to vote overwhelmingly for Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD. In Mandalay, one of the party's strongholds, one reliable opinion poll suggested more than 60% would vote for the NLD and 37% for the USDP. The NLD may even fare quite well in some ethnic areas in which it had been written off as losing popularity.
"The ethnic parties will win in their areas for certain," said Zaganar, a former political prisoner and renowned comedian, who has travelled extensively throughout Myanmar in the past year.
According to the opinion poll cited earlier, the NLD is running at 23% nationally, the USDP 15% and the National Unity Party 4% — with the other parties registering 2%, led by the Arakan National Party (ANP) and the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNLD). In the 1990 elections the SNLD won 23 seats with only 1.7% of the national vote.
Shan state again will be pivotal. It has 55 seats in the lower house and 12 in the upper house — more than in any other state or region.
Already the NLD and the ethnic parties are in talks about cooperation. SNLD leader Hkun Htun Oo told Asia Focus that an electoral alliance had not yet been broached. The United Nationalities Alliance — in which the SNLD is the lead party — will discuss detailed electoral strategies over the next few weeks and those talks will include the NLD.
"The nationalities will not vote for the Burmans, they will only vote for an ethnic candidate," said Hkun Htun Oo. "For her [Aung San Suu Kyi] to form a government or influence the presidential election, she needs the support of a strong nationalities group," said Hkun Htun Oo.
He also supports Aung San Suu Kyi for president — despite the constitutional provision that bars her from the post. "That's why we have to win this election and change the constitution," he said.
The NLD remains confident it will win a handsome majority and form a government, said Win Htein, a senior party member and MP. "But the end goal is to establish a democratic and federal state," he insisted.
The USDP is less upbeat but is still expected to play a key role after the elections.
"We are well prepared and well organised; we have both strategy and policies," said Shwe Maung, a USDP MP who is seeking re-election. "While we don't expect a landslide victory, we will have enough seats to play a leading role after the elections, with the help of the military vote."
Voters on Nov 8 will not be directly electing the next president. That will be the job of the national parliament. The upper and lower houses will each elect a vice-president, and the military MPs — who make up 25% of parliament — will also nominate their choice for vice-president. At a combined sitting the legislators will choose the next president from the three vice-presidents already nominated.
This makes it difficult to predict who will be president — especially if Thein Sein declines to run. The successful candidate will have to muster the support of at least half the MPs — with the military already holding 25% of the seats. Obviously their support will be crucial in deciding the outcome.
But the NLD and the ethnic parties — if the election results follow the current predictions — will also hold strong blocs in parliament. With the support of the ethnic parties, Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD could well find themselves as kingmakers, if not forming a coalition government.
The pro-democracy leader announced last week in Nay Pyi Daw that the NLD would propose its own candidate for president but declined to offer a name.
Some of the smaller parties may also play an important role in any coalition that is formed, or may even make the difference in the decision as to who will be president. So while the constituency battles between the "big two" may dominate the headlines, the final outcome will be decided by small parties that only muster up a few seats.
"The Farmers Development Party and the National Development Party are going to give the top two parties a run for their money," said Zaganar. "Every tractor in the Irrawaddy Delta is sporting an FDP flag."
The campaign is going to be fierce and possibly dirty. Smaller parties will be fighting for their survival — under the Electoral Law any party that wins fewer than 3 seats in parliament will be dissolved.
"The military and the elite are more desperate then ever before," said Khine Win, a commentator and director of the Sandhi Governance Institute. "They never had any intentions of giving away control, and are still entrenching their power; they'll use regions to fragment the opposition."
So at the very best it will be a bitter battle on the hustings, though many fear even worse — manipulation of the voters — especially in the rural and remote areas.